Thoughts on the Invasion of Ukraine
Feb. 24th, 2022 03:00 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jamesqThe first thing I want everyone to remember is that Vladimir Putin has agency, and is an autocrat. Russia doesn’t do anything unless he wants it to. The invasion of Ukraine is not the fault of the Ukrainians, it’s not the fault of Europe, it’s not the fault of the western powers, and it’s certainly not the fault of progressives in the west calling for their own states to be better about human rights*.
This is squarely on Putin. It is absolutely his call and his fault.
They’ll say it’s because they’re worried about Nazis. And to be sure, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but that’s Ukraine’s problem to fix until they start invading other countries. They say that Ukraine is somehow hurting Russia. Honestly, the only thing they could hurt is Russia’s feelings. The reasons are all after-the-fact justification for their legion of comment-bots to use, nothing more.
So why is he doing this? If you’re a great power, domestic policy always outweighs foreign policy. As an autocrat overseeing a giant country that he and his gang have spent the last two generations looting, Putin cannot lose his grip on power. Mostly likely outcome? Death - followed by jail and exile. His retirement policy is to never retire.
To stay in power a leader can do two things: They can make things better for their country, so that they are beloved. And if you can’t do that (because you’re spent your entire time immisserating your people) then you blame other people. Naturally, Putin went all in on #2. He controls the state media, and basically tells everyone that the reason why their lives suck is because of the big bad west.
And if Ukraine is looking westward, embracing democracy (specifically democracy that votes in the wrong people), and worst of all, cracking down on corruption, well then it’s time for some regime change. And that is what I think Putin’s goal is. A quick war to boost his popularity, followed by an occupation and installation of a puppet government. When the dust settles, Ukraine will be an independent country in name only.
Of maybe he’s honestly empire-building, and he’s counting on the rest of the world to not care that much about Eastern Europe. I bet the ‘Stans are worried, because the west gives less of a shit about Tashkent than it does Kyiv.
What can we do? Well, a shooting war is probably out of the question unless we want it going nuclear, and I think we can all agree that’s a bad idea. That pretty much leaves sanctions.
The problem with sanctions is that Russia is pretty big, and its people are already in pretty bad condition. Sanctions only do so much. Especially when there isn’t any economic sanction that they can’t bear, and Putin will see it as something that will temper them, and also something he can use for propaganda. I mean, he’s already willing to throw a generation of Russia’s young men into the sausage grinder. In twenty years, the world will have relaxed their sanctions, and they’ll still have Ukraine.
Which is why I think we should focus on sanctions that target the Russian oligarchy. Take away all of their property in London and New York. Deport their families that are living abroad. Seize their bank accounts. That’ll hurt them a lot more than a trade embargo. They personally should be made to suffer for this, because those are the people that might actually have influence over Putin.
Also, and I know this is just wishful thinking, kick them off the UN Security Council. That permanent seat went to the Soviet Union, not you assholes.
* Like seriously, I saw human turds Ben Shapiro and Clay Travis suggest that because we respect gay and trans rights, Russia and China figure we don’t have the stones to oppose them.
This is squarely on Putin. It is absolutely his call and his fault.
They’ll say it’s because they’re worried about Nazis. And to be sure, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but that’s Ukraine’s problem to fix until they start invading other countries. They say that Ukraine is somehow hurting Russia. Honestly, the only thing they could hurt is Russia’s feelings. The reasons are all after-the-fact justification for their legion of comment-bots to use, nothing more.
So why is he doing this? If you’re a great power, domestic policy always outweighs foreign policy. As an autocrat overseeing a giant country that he and his gang have spent the last two generations looting, Putin cannot lose his grip on power. Mostly likely outcome? Death - followed by jail and exile. His retirement policy is to never retire.
To stay in power a leader can do two things: They can make things better for their country, so that they are beloved. And if you can’t do that (because you’re spent your entire time immisserating your people) then you blame other people. Naturally, Putin went all in on #2. He controls the state media, and basically tells everyone that the reason why their lives suck is because of the big bad west.
And if Ukraine is looking westward, embracing democracy (specifically democracy that votes in the wrong people), and worst of all, cracking down on corruption, well then it’s time for some regime change. And that is what I think Putin’s goal is. A quick war to boost his popularity, followed by an occupation and installation of a puppet government. When the dust settles, Ukraine will be an independent country in name only.
Of maybe he’s honestly empire-building, and he’s counting on the rest of the world to not care that much about Eastern Europe. I bet the ‘Stans are worried, because the west gives less of a shit about Tashkent than it does Kyiv.
What can we do? Well, a shooting war is probably out of the question unless we want it going nuclear, and I think we can all agree that’s a bad idea. That pretty much leaves sanctions.
The problem with sanctions is that Russia is pretty big, and its people are already in pretty bad condition. Sanctions only do so much. Especially when there isn’t any economic sanction that they can’t bear, and Putin will see it as something that will temper them, and also something he can use for propaganda. I mean, he’s already willing to throw a generation of Russia’s young men into the sausage grinder. In twenty years, the world will have relaxed their sanctions, and they’ll still have Ukraine.
Which is why I think we should focus on sanctions that target the Russian oligarchy. Take away all of their property in London and New York. Deport their families that are living abroad. Seize their bank accounts. That’ll hurt them a lot more than a trade embargo. They personally should be made to suffer for this, because those are the people that might actually have influence over Putin.
Also, and I know this is just wishful thinking, kick them off the UN Security Council. That permanent seat went to the Soviet Union, not you assholes.
* Like seriously, I saw human turds Ben Shapiro and Clay Travis suggest that because we respect gay and trans rights, Russia and China figure we don’t have the stones to oppose them.
