95th Academy Awards Predictions
Mar. 11th, 2023 11:07 pmSome thoughts on the Oscars.
First, lets go through a bunch of awards without any real discussion. Note, I haven't seen every picture, so I'm picking from the ones I have seen.
Best Adapted Screenplay: I want Glass Onion to win, but it will probably be Living or Women Talking.
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees, EEAAO and Fabelmans all deserve it. Banshees was best written, but I suspect Fabelmans will get it.
Visual Effects: Avatar 2.
Sound (Wasn't this two categories last year?): Elvis.
Production Design: Elvis.
Short Film (Live Action): No clue.
Short Film (Animated): No clue, but My Year of Dicks should win based on the title alone.
Documentary Short: No clue.
Documentary Feature: No clue.
Original Song: I heard two of them, but neither slapped.
Original Score: Fabelmans, because John Williams.
Makeup: Wakanda Forever.
International Feature Film: All Quiet on the Western Front, because it's not getting Best Picture.
Film Editing: EEAAO. Or maybe Elvis.
Costume Design: Should be Wakanda Forever, but it will Elvis.
Cinematography: Elvis.
Now on to the big ones:
Animated Feature Film. I've only seen two, The Sea Beast, and Turning Red. I think it's going to go to the latter. Mostly because I'm not sure why The Sea Beast was nominated. Oh, it was fine, but it's the weird mashup of How To Train Your Dragon and Master and Commander nobody asked for. Pinocchio might upset this - I'm sure it's good because Del Toro, but I haven't seen it yet.
Supporting Actress. Curtis and Hsu are going to split the EEAAO vote, and The Whale isn't going to win for this. That leaves Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon. I think Bassett deserves it for that performance, but superhero movies are still 2nd class films for the Oscars, so I think Condon will get it. That said, she was the best part of Banshees.
Supporting Actor. Gleeson and Keoghan will split the Banshees vote. Hirsch is in Fabelmans for five minutes, so no. That leaves Quan, who has a helluva lot of buzz around his role in EEAAO. I think he deserves it and will get it.
Leading Actress. Williams has done better in the past, and will get her Oscar eventually, but if Yeoh doesn't get it, they should set the place on fire.
Leading Actor. Man, this is tough. Butler, Farrell and Fraser all did great this year. I think it'll go to Fraser, because everyone wants it to go to him. I just wish he'd get it for a better movie than The Whale. And I'm still never going to watch it, because I don't want to slit my wrists.
Best Director. This is one of those cases where I think Best Picture and Best Director are going to different. The Academy might want to praise Spielberg some more, but probably not - Fabelmans kind of flopped before the nomination, and Hollywood is still a business. EEAAO might be too weird for them, so that leaves the Daniels out. I think McDonagh will get it because Banshees is a moody downer. For proof, look at Nomadland, Moonlight, Greenbook, Spotlight, 12 Years a Slave from the last decade.
Best Picture. I've seen five of the ten Best Picture nominees, and they were all pretty good. Maybe not all Oscar-worthy (Avatar 2, I had a great time, but no). Now the thing about Best Picture is there's a lot of nominees, and they use ranked ballots, so often a very popular but polarizing movie won't win, and the movie that was everyone's 2nd or 3rd choice sneaks in. See for example, Greenbook. The two blockbusters are polarizing so no Best Picture for Avatar 2 or Maverick. a bunch of movies had microscopic audiences (probably undeserved if they got this far), so that leaves out things like Tar, Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking. All Quiet isn't going to win here, because people don't want a repeat of Parasite. That leaves Banshees, EEAAO, Elvis, and the Fabelmans. I'm not even going to guess at which one is everyone's 2nd favourite though. I just think Everything Everywhere All At Once should win.
Anyway, the Oscars are tomorrow, and I'll be watching them.
First, lets go through a bunch of awards without any real discussion. Note, I haven't seen every picture, so I'm picking from the ones I have seen.
Now on to the big ones:
Animated Feature Film. I've only seen two, The Sea Beast, and Turning Red. I think it's going to go to the latter. Mostly because I'm not sure why The Sea Beast was nominated. Oh, it was fine, but it's the weird mashup of How To Train Your Dragon and Master and Commander nobody asked for. Pinocchio might upset this - I'm sure it's good because Del Toro, but I haven't seen it yet.
Supporting Actress. Curtis and Hsu are going to split the EEAAO vote, and The Whale isn't going to win for this. That leaves Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon. I think Bassett deserves it for that performance, but superhero movies are still 2nd class films for the Oscars, so I think Condon will get it. That said, she was the best part of Banshees.
Supporting Actor. Gleeson and Keoghan will split the Banshees vote. Hirsch is in Fabelmans for five minutes, so no. That leaves Quan, who has a helluva lot of buzz around his role in EEAAO. I think he deserves it and will get it.
Leading Actress. Williams has done better in the past, and will get her Oscar eventually, but if Yeoh doesn't get it, they should set the place on fire.
Leading Actor. Man, this is tough. Butler, Farrell and Fraser all did great this year. I think it'll go to Fraser, because everyone wants it to go to him. I just wish he'd get it for a better movie than The Whale. And I'm still never going to watch it, because I don't want to slit my wrists.
Best Director. This is one of those cases where I think Best Picture and Best Director are going to different. The Academy might want to praise Spielberg some more, but probably not - Fabelmans kind of flopped before the nomination, and Hollywood is still a business. EEAAO might be too weird for them, so that leaves the Daniels out. I think McDonagh will get it because Banshees is a moody downer. For proof, look at Nomadland, Moonlight, Greenbook, Spotlight, 12 Years a Slave from the last decade.
Best Picture. I've seen five of the ten Best Picture nominees, and they were all pretty good. Maybe not all Oscar-worthy (Avatar 2, I had a great time, but no). Now the thing about Best Picture is there's a lot of nominees, and they use ranked ballots, so often a very popular but polarizing movie won't win, and the movie that was everyone's 2nd or 3rd choice sneaks in. See for example, Greenbook. The two blockbusters are polarizing so no Best Picture for Avatar 2 or Maverick. a bunch of movies had microscopic audiences (probably undeserved if they got this far), so that leaves out things like Tar, Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking. All Quiet isn't going to win here, because people don't want a repeat of Parasite. That leaves Banshees, EEAAO, Elvis, and the Fabelmans. I'm not even going to guess at which one is everyone's 2nd favourite though. I just think Everything Everywhere All At Once should win.
Anyway, the Oscars are tomorrow, and I'll be watching them.