Preparing For the Returns

[jamesq]

--- Begin Post-Election Day Edit ---
Boy did my predictions ever suck.
--- End Post-Election Day Edit ---

It's Election Day! As a political junkie I'm looking forward to the show tonight, especially since I have a feeling things are improving. Here are some predictions:

• The Conservatives will have the most seats, but will be about ten down from where they were.
  
• The Liberals won't get quite as badly clobbered as advanced polls indicate. Still, they'll be worse off.
  
• The Bloc Québécois will not lose enough seats that they won't be required for any possible coalition. They will lose a lot though.
  
• The NDP will be the big winners, but this will be tempered by the fact that they're not going to be big enough to form a majority, and they're not going to do quite as well as the polls indicate - too many soft Liberal supporters will change their minds at the last minute.
  
• Elizabeth May will get the Green's one seat.

Conservatives: 133
Liberals: 72
NDP: 72
BQ: 29
Green: 1
Other/Ind: 1

Anyway, I'll be firing up the popcorn tonight for a rousing night of creeping returns, which I will follow the way sports fans follow their teams. Bonus, I'll get to watch Wendy Mesley (Mmmmm) and make fun of Rex Murphy. Throw in some Rick Mercer and it'll be fun even if the Conservatives do still win - on the bright side, they won't have enough seats to implement many of their destructive policies.

Long term, I think this election will be a watershed moment: The point where the NDP became more then just a rump party; It will trigger leadership changes for the CPC, Liberals and Bloc. The Greens have the potential to become what the NDP was for a long time. And maybe, just maybe we'll get that NDP/Liberal coalition I'd love to see. They'd only need six more seats each from what I've predicted above to pull it off, though the Liberals might not have the stomach for it if it looks like they'll be the junior partner.

Comments

[evilscientist.livejournal.com]

I don't think that Harper will see a leadership contest or review as long as he's a sitting PM. This crop of Tories just don't seem to think that way, more of seeing Harper as the supreme leader who shall not be questioned.

I will say that if Harper does get his majority, assuming we have a next election he probably will be packing his bags to head to Stornoway. He'll have no choice but to implement the hard right agenda he's been promising to implement if only he had a majority. This would damage the Conservative brand to levels that would make Brian Mulroney blush in shame. The problem is how much damage can he do to the country in that 5 year period.

[jamesq]

Remember that nobody, including the Reform wing of the CPC actually likes Harper. They allow his authoritarian style because it's winning them elections. If it looks like they're on the slippery slope to opposition status, they just might decide to get rid of him and pin their hopes on someone else.

Of course a coalition government means he won't actually be the sitting PM.

As for your second point, I doubt Harper cares what happens after his hypothetical majority. Big Business will reward him for making Big Business the sole focus of government when he's no longer a politician. It's not like Brian Mulroney was hurting for job offers after reducing the old PC party to two seats. Harper is not going to Stornoway, he's going to be sitting on half a dozen boards and cowriting reports for the Frasier Institute.

[haasiophis.livejournal.com]

Please don't hit me with a clue-by-four...

Contextually I can understand what you mean, but could you please explain the term "watershed"?

[jamesq]

A critical moment. The point where everything afterward is different from all the times before. Watersheds are the area where major waterways get their water from. The continental divide is a literal watershed dividing line.

[haasiophis.livejournal.com]

Thanks. Funny the things you find you don't know sometimes.

[bow-bitch.livejournal.com]

Small, tiny glimmers of a silver lining....

The Bloc is gone. What I fear is a revival of nasty Quebec nationalism. Put three Quebeckers in a room and you'll end up with five different political parties. However I will miss Gilles in the debates, he's so darned smart.

We are evolving back to a two party system where leaders matter more - and attack ads work - this will kill any and all discussion of electoral reform. Even with Liz May's small toehold, she can't even ask a question in Question Period given her lack of official party status.

With a Majority, the Official Opposition can be effectively ignored and now we will have an even MORE acrimonious, divided House of Commons. The Liberals and Conservatives were much closer together ideologically than we may care to admit - for truly if either Ignatieff or Harper were PM after 9-11, we would have gone to war in Iraq.

Also too say goodbye to any kind of environmental stewardship. The Green Party is on life support.

What worries me most is the erosion of the Supreme Court of Canada's political neutrality. We are the envy of the world and the model for the Hauge and the International Criminal Court.

Dark days indeed...