Dead But Not Forgotten

Stayed up last night to watch President Obama's announcement that Osama Bin Laden was killed. That was about as much coverage as I really need on the subject, but it's going to dominate the news cycle for at least the next two days and probably a week.

I'm a little irritated by that because I was hoping to watch the Federal Election returns tonight on CBC. I'll still do it, but it won't be the 100% Canadian Policy Wonk hit to the bloodstream I was hoping for because everyone and their dog will want to comment on OBL's death. Perhaps I'll make it a drinking game.

Let me get my comments out of the way. The idealist in me would have liked to see him captured and put on trial. The part of me that understands Realpolitik sees that capturing would be many times more difficult and a trial would give Bin Laden multiple opportunities to rail against the United States and possibly send messages to supporters. No - when the USA still holds a bunch of low-level flunkies and innocents in Guantanamo Bay without trial, they sure as hell ain't going to give one to Bin Laden.

Killing Bin Laden on the spot is probably the best of a bad situation. It eliminates a minor threat (and I mean minor - OBL after 911 was effectively neutered as a threat to the west, it would take a miracle for him to operate openly), but that's about all. It does remove a bogeyman, which might be psychologically helpful for the American public.

Sadly, killing OBL does not end the War On Terror (or the War On Any Other Noun); It's not going to get the west out of Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya any quicker; It's not going to eliminate the threat of fringe Islamic terrorists.

Still, I wish we could have done the right thing rather then the expedient thing: Catch him, put him on trial for conspiracy to commit murder (pick a handful of 9/11 victims for this, just to make it about the real people he killed and not the hard-to-comprehend statistic of 2900+ deaths), lock him up. The message it would send would be simple: You're not a freedom fighter, you're a criminal - and law enforcement is an appropriate way to deal with you. Of course, it's all moot and was moot even before he was dead - that was simply never going to happen.

The Calgary Sun's headline today read "Rot in Hell". I don't believe Bin Laden is in hell, nor do I believe he's sitting in Terrorist Heaven being fed grapes by 90 virgins. He's just dead. Maybe now we can stop talking about him in exactly the same way nobody really talks about Tim McVeigh anymore either.

Preparing For the Returns

--- Begin Post-Election Day Edit ---
Boy did my predictions ever suck.
--- End Post-Election Day Edit ---

It's Election Day! As a political junkie I'm looking forward to the show tonight, especially since I have a feeling things are improving. Here are some predictions:

• The Conservatives will have the most seats, but will be about ten down from where they were.
  
• The Liberals won't get quite as badly clobbered as advanced polls indicate. Still, they'll be worse off.
  
• The Bloc Québécois will not lose enough seats that they won't be required for any possible coalition. They will lose a lot though.
  
• The NDP will be the big winners, but this will be tempered by the fact that they're not going to be big enough to form a majority, and they're not going to do quite as well as the polls indicate - too many soft Liberal supporters will change their minds at the last minute.
  
• Elizabeth May will get the Green's one seat.

Conservatives: 133
Liberals: 72
NDP: 72
BQ: 29
Green: 1
Other/Ind: 1

Anyway, I'll be firing up the popcorn tonight for a rousing night of creeping returns, which I will follow the way sports fans follow their teams. Bonus, I'll get to watch Wendy Mesley (Mmmmm) and make fun of Rex Murphy. Throw in some Rick Mercer and it'll be fun even if the Conservatives do still win - on the bright side, they won't have enough seats to implement many of their destructive policies.

Long term, I think this election will be a watershed moment: The point where the NDP became more then just a rump party; It will trigger leadership changes for the CPC, Liberals and Bloc. The Greens have the potential to become what the NDP was for a long time. And maybe, just maybe we'll get that NDP/Liberal coalition I'd love to see. They'd only need six more seats each from what I've predicted above to pull it off, though the Liberals might not have the stomach for it if it looks like they'll be the junior partner.